💰 Finance calculator

Expected Revenue Calculator

Three methods in one tool — choose the model that fits your situation. Funnel mode: opportunities × conversion rate × avg revenue. Units mode: volume × price (or orders × AOV). Probability mode: weighted scenarios where uncertain outcomes are each assigned a likelihood. All modes include contribution margin and a scenario comparison.

Choose a method

Select the model that matches your data. Use a preset or enter your own values.

🟢 Funnel inputs
👥
Leads, visitors, quotes, demos — top of funnel
📊
% of opportunities that become customers
💵
Average sale or order value
⚪ Optional — scenario comparison
📉
Downside conversion rate estimate
📈
Upside conversion rate estimate
🔧
COGS, fulfilment, delivery cost per sale
🔵 Volume & price
📦
Expected units sold or orders received
💵
Price per unit or average order value
⚪ Optional
🔧
COGS per unit — for contribution margin
📉
Low-end unit estimate
📈
High-end unit estimate

Enter each scenario's revenue outcome and probability. Probabilities must sum to 100%.

Probabilities: 0% (need 100%)
⚪ Optional
🔧
Applied to expected revenue for contribution

3 methods

Funnel: Opps × CR% × Avg rev
Units: Volume × Price (or AOV)
Probability: Σ (Prob × Outcome)
Probabilities must sum to 100%

Test scenarios, not just a base case

Expected revenue based on a single conversion rate or volume estimate implies false precision. Always model a conservative and optimistic case alongside the base — the range tells you more than any single number.

Tip: in Funnel mode, use qualified opportunities, not total traffic. Using raw website visitors as the opportunity count will inflate expected conversions and produce an unrealistic revenue forecast.
This calculator provides planning estimates only. Actual results may differ due to seasonality, traffic quality, pricing changes, refunds, discounts, churn, sales cycle length, and fulfilment constraints. Always test assumptions against historical data where available.

Frequently asked questions

What is expected revenue?

Expected revenue is a forecast of the revenue you are likely to generate based on volume, pricing, conversion probability, or weighted scenario analysis. It is an estimate, not a guaranteed outcome — but it provides a structured, quantitative basis for budgeting and planning decisions.

Which method should I use?

Use Funnel mode when you have lead or traffic data and an estimated conversion rate. Use Units mode when you have firm volume forecasts and a known price or AOV. Use Probability mode when outcomes are genuinely uncertain and you want to model multiple scenarios — common in B2B pipeline management, project bids, and early-stage product launches.

What is revenue per opportunity?

Revenue per opportunity is expected revenue divided by the number of opportunities. It shows the average economic value of each lead, visitor, or prospect before knowing which ones will convert. Useful for comparing channel efficiency and setting lead acquisition budgets.

Do probabilities in the probability model have to sum to 100%?

Yes. The probability-weighted formula requires all scenario probabilities to sum to exactly 100%. If they don't, the weighted average will be systematically biased. The tool highlights this in real time so you can correct it before calculating.

Related finance calculators

Margin Calculator Calculate expected gross margin from expected revenue — the natural follow-on to any revenue forecast. Overhead Calculator Compare expected revenue against fixed overhead to see whether your forecast supports the cost structure. Cost Savings Calculator Model the revenue and cost impact of a specific change together for a complete financial picture. Employee Growth Rate Calculator Plan headcount to support expected revenue — a common capacity planning next step.

Disclaimer

This calculator is for educational and planning purposes only. It does not provide accounting, tax, legal, or financial advice. Actual results can vary materially due to pricing strategy, channel mix, customer behaviour, seasonality, cost changes, and market conditions.